Meta AI hackathon · haze early warning · Kalimantan, Oct 2023

Jejak Asap

Fire hotspots → SAM 3.1 cuts out the smoke → Muse Spark checks smoke vs cloud → wind carries particles for 24 hours → each city gets a chance of smoke and an arrival time. Below is a replay of 16 real days, scored against hourly PM2.5, including the days it got wrong.

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VIIRS true-colour satellite image of Central and South Kalimantan for the selected day
TINGGI ≥60% SEDANG ≥30% RENDAH AMAN white ring = PM2.5 reached 55.5 µg/m³ smoke accepted by Muse fire cluster SAM box (110 m/px) ✉ = day with alert messages

Warnings vs what happened (warning = chance ≥50%)

What the backtest says

Forecast skill comes from wind plus measured PM2.5. Vision (SAM 3.1 + Muse) shows people where the smoke is; across three months it did not raise the score, and we report that.